Guy Carp study links ocean temperature and cyclones


The Guy Carpenter Asia Pacific Climate Impact Centre, a joint study conducted annually by Guy Carpenter and City University Hong Kong, linked rising ocean temperatures with increased tropical cyclone activity.

According to the report’s authors tropical cyclone activity is correlated with April/May sea-surface temperature (SST) in various ocean basins, of the 19 positive SST years—where ocean temperature was unusually high—15 are associated with above-normal tropical cyclone activity. In contrast, the average number of tropical cyclones is significantly lower than normal in years when the sea-surface temperature is negative, or cooler than normal.

The Asia Pacific region is already one of the most catastrophe prone regions in the world. Speaking with Bermuda:Re, James Few, CEO of Aspen Re said that 58 percent of global earthquakes occur in the region, which also sees significant flood losses and an average of 29 typhoons a year, making the Northwest Pacific Basin the most typhoon-prone basin on the globe.

Few said: “clearly it’s a very catty area. Insurance companies and owners of property in such regions are aware of the peril, and I think recognition of how the international catastrophe reinsurance market can help is growing. It is also worth remembering that China is exposed to a lot of other peril, like winter storms. It’s not just typhoon and earthquake.”

The Guy Carpenter report also investigates the possibility of real-time typhoon forecasting and examines how pollution affects local and regional climate in the Asia Pacific region. The full report can be found here

Guy Carpenter, Hong Kong, cyclones

Bermuda Re