Windstorm Ciara expected to cause more than €1bn in losses

Insured property losses from Windstorm Ciara, also known as Sabine, will likely fall between €1.1 billion and €1.8 billion (US$1.2 and US$1.95 billion), according to estimates from RMS, the catastrophe risk modeling company.

Losses includes damage to property, auto, forestry, agriculture, and direct business interruption but excludes losses from damage to infrastructure. Germany was hardest hit, accounting for half of the total loss, RMS said. Ciara also affected France, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Belgium, Switzerland, Austria, and the Czech Republic between February 8-11.

The loss estimate is based on a hazard reconstruction using the version 15.0 RMS Europe windstorm models. RMS does not expect any post-event loss amplification and anticipates low business interruption losses. Losses from auto are not expected to exceed more than five percent of the total loss.

Windstorm Ciara is likely to be the first billion-Euro windstorm of this season, said

Michèle Lai, product manager for Europe climate models at RMS. “Our loss range represents the current uncertainty in the event loss, which is primarily driven by prolonged, squally gusts that locally affected several regions across the continent.”