Moody’s RMS: Helene insured losses best estimate is $26bn
Hurricane Milton is likely to cost private insurers between $22 billion and $36 billion, according to Moody’s RMS, which said its best estimate of losses was $26 billion.
The risk modelling firm said it estimated inland flood losses, excluding the US national flood insurance programme, at between $1 billion and $2 billion.
Milton made landfall as a Category 3 major hurricane near Siesta Key, Florida on October 9, 2024 with maximum sustained winds of 120mph.
Moody’s RMS also revised down a previous estimate of the combined losses from Helene and Milton to $30 billion to $50 billion from $35 billion to $55 billion.
It also estimated that losses to the NFIP across both events could exceed US$5 billion.
Mohsen Rahnama, Chief Risk Modeling Officer, Moody’s, said: “We were fortunate to avoid the ‘grey swan’ event that many feared when Milton tracked and made landfall south of the Tampa-St. Petersburg metro area.
“Still, the storm’s large swath of damaging winds, subsequent storm surge, and inland flood footprints affected key exposure areas throughout the state, which will undoubtedly make it one of the costliest hurricanes to impact west Florida.”
Raj Vojjala, Managing Director, Modelling and Analytics, Moody’s, added: “It’s important to not just consider the overlap across areas affected by high winds and surge in Milton and Helene, but also areas that sustained damage during Hurricane Ian in 2022 that haven’t fully recovered yet.
“Our vulnerability experts on the ground surveyed these impacts firsthand, which was invaluable in discerning the loss potential from Milton. Field reconnaissance confirmed numerous instances of improved resilience of structures that had their roofs replaced recently.
“It also highlighted areas with older building stock and roofs in parts of Tampa Bay that had not experienced such high winds in recent times, which will likely drive notable wind claims in Milton, especially if they are subject to the Florida 25 percent roof replacement rule.”
Jeff Waters, Director - North Atlantic Hurricane Models, Moody’s, said: “Alongside damaging wind, storm surge, and precipitation-induced inland flooding, the outer rainbands of Hurricane Milton also produced numerous damaging tornadoes across Florida.
“Damage surveys by the National Weather Service are still being conducted, but even the confirmed data to date suggests that Milton produced one of the most prolific tornado outbreaks associated with a tropical cyclone in recent history.”
Moody’s RMS said it expects private market losses for Milton to be largely driven by wind, with smaller contributions from storm surge and inland flood impacts.
Losses for the NFIP are expected to be largely driven by storm surge, particularly in areas south of Tampa Bay-St. Petersburg. Insured wind and NFIP losses will be driven by residential lines, while storm surge and inland flood losses to the private market will be driven by commercial, and automobile lines.
Aon also reported today that Helene spawned 42 tornadoes in Florida, including three EF-3 tornadoes, one of which caused six fatalities. Overall, Milton caused 24 deaths in Florida and three in Mexico.
By October 15, 152,000 insurance claims had been filed on Florida.
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