National Hurricane Center
25 September 2024News

Helene expected to become Category 3 hurricane

Tropical Storm Helene, which has rapidly intensified in the Caribbean Sea in the last 24 hours, is expected to make landfall in Florida tomorrow as a Category Three hurricane, forecasters said. 

Helene is moving north along Mexico's coast today and is expected gain strength as it passes over above average sea temperatures before coming ashore - most likely in Florida's Gulf Coast tomorrow.  

The Associated Press said the storm is forecast to be “near hurricane strength” when it passes near Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula early today, the US National Hurricane Center said, and to “intensify and grow in size” as it moves north across the Gulf of Mexico. Heavy rainfall was forecast for the southeastern US starting today, with a “life-threatening storm surge” along the entire west coast of Florida. 

Helene is expected to become a major hurricane — a Category 3 or higher — on Thursday, the day it’s set to reach Florida’s Gulf Coast, according to the hurricane center. The center has issued hurricane warnings for part of Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula and Florida’s northwestern coastline, where large storm surges of up to 15 feet (4.5 meters) were expected.

Mexico is still reeling from former Hurricane John battering its other coast. John hit the country’s southern Pacific coast late on Monday, killing two people, blowing tin roofs off houses, triggering mudslides and toppling scores of trees, officials said yesterday.

John grew into a Category 3 hurricane in a matter of hours on Monday and made landfall about 80 miles east of the resort of Acapulco, near the town of Punta Maldonado, with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph before weakening to a tropical storm after moving inland.

Helene, which formed Tuesday in the Caribbean, is expected to move over deep, warm waters, fueling its intensification. People in regions under hurricane warnings and watches should be prepared to lose power and should have enough food and water for at least three days, forecasters warned.

Hurricane watches — which are a step down from warnings — were also in effect for parts of western Cuba and Florida, including the Tampa Bay area, the National Hurricane Center said.

“It’s going to be a very large system with impacts across all of Florida,” said Larry Kelly, a specialist at the hurricane center.

Several counties on Florida’s west and northwestern coasts have issued evacuation orders. Multiple school districts, including in the areas around Tampa and the state capital Tallahassee, plan to close schools or reduce hours starting Wednesday.

President Joe Biden declared an emergency in Florida and deployed Federal Emergency Management Agency teams to Florida and Alabama to support local first responders. Federal authorities were positioning generators, food and water, along with search-and-rescue and power restoration teams, the White House said.

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis also issued an emergency for most of the state’s counties, while Georgia Governor Brian Kemp declared an emergency in his state as well.

The storm is anticipated to be unusually large and fast-moving, meaning storm surges, wind and rain will likely extend far from the storm’s center, the hurricane center said. States as far inland as Tennessee, Kentucky and Indiana could see rainfall.

Heavy rains and big waves already lashed the Cayman Islands on Tuesday. Officials there closed schools, airports and government offices as strong winds knocked out power in some areas of Grand Cayman, while heavy rain and waves as high as 10 feet unleashed flooding. Authorities urged people to stay indoors as the storm moved away later Tuesday and said crews would fan out to assess damage.

Helene is the eighth named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, which began June 1. Since 2000, eight major hurricanes have made landfall in Florida, according to Philip Klotzbach, a Colorado State University hurricane researcher.

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More on this story

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12 July 2024   Moody’s said the early hurricane will not affect rates.
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13 September 2024   CoreLogic said losses are expected to be 'manageable' for primary carriers.
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31 May 2024   High sea surface temperatures and La Nina may combine for a very active Atlantic season.