Western North Pacific braces for above average cyclone activity: Guy Carpenter

The Western North Pacific will experience an above average number of tropical cyclones between April 1 and September 30 2021, according to Guy Carpenter & Company’s annual briefing on the 2021 Western North Pacific Basic Tropical Cyclone season.

Guy Carpenter predicted there will be around 19.5 cyclone formations during the six-month period, an increase of approximately 44 percent compared to the 1980-2020 six-month average of 13.5. Of the predicted formations, fewer than 9.9 are expected to make landfall, which is marginally below the 1980-2020 average of approximately 10.8.

Guy Carpenter predicted there will be fewer than average cyclones in Japan and Korea, but more than the average number in East China, South China, Taiwan and Vietnam. The number of cyclones in the Philippines will be broadly in line with the average figure, the broker said.

Jeremy Waite, Asia Pacific catastrophe advisory group lead at Guy Carpenter, said: “The predictions suggest that the region will experience a very active tropical cyclone season. However, the number of storms forecast to make landfall is expected to be slightly below the long-term average, although the exact location of these landfalls remains uncertain. By generating these forecasts, we are providing our clients with critical information that will enable them to plan for potentially significant insured and economic losses.”

Karl Jones, head of the global strategic advisory team in Asia Pacific at Guy Carpenter, said: “Tropical cyclone risk is a key area of focus for our clients, and we have seen significant impact from such events across Asia in recent years.”

Guy Carpenter’s briefing is produced in partnership with the Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre (GCACIC) at the School of Energy and Environment in the City University of Hong Kong. The forecasts for tropical cyclone formations and landfalls are generated using an East Asia climate model.