AXIS warns Q4 cat losses could be around $200m

AXIS Capital Holdings expects its Q4 net claims to come in at between $195 million and $205 million, pre-tax, for catastrophes and weather-related events.

This preliminary net claims estimate includes $125 million, pre-tax, for the COVID-19 pandemic.

AXIS made this estimate following a review of potential exposures to the COVID-19 pandemic on all lines of business, both short and long-tail. It considered new information provided by clients, global shelter-in-place orders that came into effect in Q4 and outcomes of recent court judgments, including the UK Supreme Court ruling.

The expected loss is in addition to the estimate of $235 million recognised in Q1. AXIS stressed its claims reserves provide for ultimate COVID-19 related losses across all lines of business incurred at December 31, 2020.

Catastrophe and weather-related losses related to Hurricanes Zeta and Delta, and regional weather events in the US, will amount to in the range of $70 million to $80 million.

AXIS Capital noted ongoing improvements in its current accident year loss ratios, excluding catastrophe and weather-related losses consistent with progress observed earlier in 2020.