Hurricane season to be ‘well above average’

The Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be “well above average” with 23 named storms and 11 hurricanes, according to a forecast by scientists at Colorado State University. 

The respected hurricane forecasters said they expect five storms to hit major hurricane status as 2024 may be much more severe than the relatively benign 2023 season when the El Nino phenomenon reduced the intensity of hurricanes.  

CSU’s Tropical Weather & Climate Research department called its forecast its “most severe first look” at a hurricane season ever. 

“We are forecasting a very, very busy hurricane season in 2024,” the report's chief author Philip Klotzbach said in announcing the forecast to the National Tropical Weather Conference. 

The full range of forecasts are all 50 to 75% above the 30-yer average, including a 71% overshoot versus average for the key metric of accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) which captures the frequency, strength and duration of named storms across the Atlantic and Gulf. 

“This is the highest April forecast that we’ve put out,” Klotzbach said, adding the forecast is still below all of the model readings CSU used in its construction. 

“With this early lead time we need to be a little bit carful,” he said. 

A lot of factors look set to go very wrong: El Niño is weak and fading fast, Atlantic surface temperatures are “extremely warm,” and the Atlantic Meridional Mode looks set to toss in a lot of storm-supportive conditions. 

El Niño, creator of upper-level winds that generate storm-shredding wind shear in the Atlantic, had once been hoped for as a storm stopper again after having offered some help in 2023. 

“Right now, we still have that El Niño, but really it is truly skin deep,” Klotzbach said, citing below-surface Pacific water temperatures set to flip the scales on the ENSO cycle. 

“What we are likely to see in the next few months is a quick transition, I think, to neutral and probably La Niña,” he said. The odds of a helpful El Niño from August on are “very, very low”.

With less protective wind shear likely later in the season, Atlantic surface water temps are freer to do their worst. Current sea surface temperatures are already record for March/April and, even if they grew at the slowest pace on record, would still render a top five season reading by storm season peak, Klotzbach warned. 

“This is the optimal pattern for a busy hurricane season,” Klotzbach said. 

Klotzbach said this was exacerbated by a positive phase for the Atlantic Meridional Mode, a contrasting measure of conditions in the northern and southern Atlantic, providing storm-supportive wind patterns, putting moisture into early development areas and still more. 

CSU said there was a 62% chance of a landfall anywhere on the US coastline versus the 43% 140-yar average. 

The Gulf coast is at greater risk than the Atlantic coast. The Gulf is given a 42% chance of landfall (vs 27% average) versus a 34% chance on the east coast (21% average). 

Klotzbach said CSU’s next forecast will be in June when the forecast will be refined, Klotzbach said. 

“Stay tuned for further updates, because a lot can change,” he said. 

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