Forecasters keep watchful eye on tropical disturbance

Weather forecasters are monitoring Potential Tropical Cyclone Five, which is currently gaining strength east of the Caribbean. 

The tropical wave is expected to gain tropical storm strength by Tuesday, when it will be named Ernesto. It is projected to close in on Guadeloupe and St Kitts and Nevis before swinging north over the British Virgin Islands on Wednesday. 

It is currently moving west at 22 knots and packing winds of 25 to 35 knots. 

The US National Hurricane Centre then projects the storm will become a category 1 hurricane as it heads north over open water towards Bermuda, although the current projected track shows it possibly veering to the east of the island on Saturday.

Ernesto follows on the heels of Hurricane Debby, which made landfall in north Florida last week before dumping heavy rain and causing widespread floods in Georgia and South Carolina. 

Gallagher Re estimated the insured loss from Debby would be between $1 billion and $2 billion, with the bulk of claims being handled by primary insurance carriers. 

The 2024 hurricane season is expected to be unusually busy, with  forecasters predicting between 17 and 24 named storms. The causes are near record sea surface temperatures, near record low windshear caused by La Nina and above normal African monsoon rains, the National Hurricane Centre said. 

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