CSU reaffirms busy 2025 hurricane season

The tropical Atlantic is still on course for an above-average hurricane season, with four major hurricanes expected, according to Colorado State University’s tropical weather & climate research team in its latest forecast, reaffirming its April outlook.

"A warmer than-normal Atlantic combined with ENSO [El Niño-Southern Oscillation] neutral conditions typically favours an active Atlantic hurricane season,” authors said. 

By the numbers, the view is exactly as it was in April: CSU is predicting 17 named storms (versus a 30 year average of 14.4), of which nine will become hurricanes (versus a 7.2 average) and four may hit the levels of a Category 3 storm or stronger. Those key forecasts are 18% - 26% above the 30-year average. 

US landfalls from major hurricanes are fractionally more likely than not. CSU gives a 51% chance of a landfall anywhere on the US coastline versus a 43% 140-year average. 

The Gulf coast is at greater risk than the Atlantic coast. The Gulf is given a 33% chance of landfall (versus a 27% average) versus a 26% chance on the east coast (versus a 21% average). 

It could be worse: ENSO conditions on an El Niño-La Niña scale, a determinant of how much storm-shredding wind shear is likely, are clearly at neutral and are likely to stay there for the season, according to the CSU current best estimate. Back in April, ENSO had been presented as more of a wildcard. 

Atlantic sea temperatures are only “slightly warmer than normal,” but not as warm as they were last year at this time.

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