Aon: Cat damage down in first half of 2024
Economic and insured damage from catastrophes in the first half of 2024 were lower than in 2023, Aon has reported.
However, Aon warned that the outlook for the second half of 2024 is marked by heightened expectations of a costly hurricane season, as well as continuing SCS activity in the US and Europe. By early July, the second named storm of the season, Hurricane Beryl, already resulted in potentially multi-billion-dollar losses.
The insurance broker's impact forecasting team said global insured losses for the first six months of 2024 were $58 billion, above the 21st century first half average of $39 billion, but lower than in the previous three years, where 1H insured losses exceeded $60 billion by end of June at current price levels.
Estimated economic losses more than $117 billion from global natural disasters, which was lower than the 21st-century first half average of $137 billion, and significantly lower than the economic losses recorded in the same period in 2023 when $226 billion were recorded).
The report said 30 economic loss events exceeded $1 billion during 1H, 22 of which occurred in the US, two in South America, four in Asia, and two in EMEA. Japan's Noto earthquake on January 1 was the costliest 1H economic loss event, with more than $17 billion in direct damage. The costliest insured loss event was a period of SCS in the US in March, estimated at $4.7 billion.
Apart from the high prevalence of SCS in the US, extensive flooding events in southern Germany, Brazil, the Middle East and China also contributed to the total global economic damage.
Aon also said that insurance protection gap fell to 50%, one of the lowest on record for the period, and largely the result of elevated insurance payouts for US severe convective storm damage. US natural disasters overall accounted for nearly 80 percent of global insured losses in 1H 2024, reaching nearly $46 billion.
"It is great to see a lowering of the global protection gap, which is a result of the high levels of insurance coverage for the SCS events observed in the first half of 2024," said Michal Lörinc, head of Catastrophe Insight at Aon. "However, the re/insurance industry needs to continue its efforts to increase levels of insurance in emerging markets, through provision of not just capital and capacity, but also advanced data and analytics, which help to qualify and quantify the risk, and ultimately shape better decisions."
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