Active hurricane season expected in 2020: Moody’s

Moody’s has predicted an active Atlantic hurricane season in 2020, given warm waters and a possible weak La Niña.

Within the past several weeks, eight weather research organisations have released estimated hurricane activity projections for 2020, with most predicting activity well above long-term historical averages. They are also expected to be above the averages observed since 1995, a period in which hurricane seasons have consistently been active.

Forecasters cite a combination of weaker vertical wind shear, warmer sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, conducive wind patterns and an enhanced West African monsoon, leading to more, and more intense, hurricane formations.

Meanwhile, neutral El Niño conditions are expected to transition to weak La Niña conditions later this summer. La Niña conditions tend to result in an increase in the number of Atlantic hurricanes that develop and allow more intense hurricanes to form.

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.