Beryl expected to cause up to $1.2bn insured damage in US

Hurricane Beryl slammed into Texas yesterday, cutting power to millions of people and causing at least four deaths in Texas and Louisiana while causing up to $1.2 billion in insured damage. 

Power began to be restored overnight while Beryl, reduced to a tropical depression from a category 1 hurricane, spun east, spawning suspected tornadoes and causing more damage, the Associated Press reported. 

BMS senior vice president and senior meteorologist Andrew Siffert said in a tropical update that the overall US insurance industry losses should be between $750 million and $1.2 million based on previous storms such as tropical storm Nicholas (2021) which cost $250 million and Tropical Storm Imelda (2019) which cost $700 million. 

Siffert said: "Although it is still early in the overall damage assessment from Beryl as the centre sideswiped the Houston Metro areas, it appears this could be a lot worse, and thankfully, dry air and shear prevented major rapid intensification before landfall. 

"Of course, that should not take away from the fact that some will be unlucky; even relatively weak landfalls such as this have the potential to cause pain to individuals and business owners. The big question is, how much damage will be above the higher wind deductibles that are in place? These are typically in place to provide coverage for higher related wind damage as, again, named storm activity in this region is not uncommon, getting brushed or hit by a named storm every 2.6 years. 

"Overall, impacts in the US should not be bad, and overall US insurance industry losses should be between $750M and $1.2B. This is based on historical analogs like recent tropical storm Nicholas (2021) $250M and Tropical Storm Imelda (2019) $700M. The loss estimate also looks at a selection of catastrophe risk model stochastic track event sets. Insurance carriers will likely retain losses, so the losses of Beryl will not likely be a reinsurance event loss."

But Siffert added: "However, please do not let Beryl US landfall take attention away from the devastation that the Eastern Caribbean suffered, with areas of Grenada and St Vincent and the Grenadines being nearly wiped out."

Siffert said the outlook for the rest of July is relatively benign, although through July 7, the Atlantic had produced a record ACE value for the year so far.  

"We have already pointed out several times that no new tropical activity is expected for the next 15 days. This is essentially a result of large areas of dry, dusty air moving across the Atlantic Basin. There is actually a suppression phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation, which we pointed out was one of the factors that allowed for the burst of activity with Alberto, Chris, and Beryl all forming at the end of June. So, if this MJO is the driving force and is expected every 30+ days, stay buckled up, as we can expect the next round of activity to start in early August."

In Texas, the AP said Houston residents were urged to stay at home due to the lack of cooling to people's homes, downed power lines and non-functioning traffic lights led officials to ask residents to stay home if possible.

“Houstonians need to know we’re working around the clock so you will be safe,” Houston Mayor John Whitmire said Monday at a media briefing, urging residents to also know the dangers of high water, to stay hydrated and to check on their neighbors.

Beryl later Monday weakened into a tropical depression with maximum wind speeds of about 35 mph. The storm still packed a punch, and the National Weather Service confirmed on social media Monday evening that tornadoes had been spotted in northeastern Louisiana. Bossier Sheriff Julian Whittington said in a Facebook post that a woman was killed in the Benton area when a tree fell on her home.

Dozens of tornado warnings were issued in Louisiana and Arkansas on Monday evening and they continued into the night.

While weakened, Beryl threatened to unleash harsh weather over several more states in coming days.

Texas state and local officials warned it could take several days to fully restore power after Beryl came ashore as a Category 1 hurricane and toppled 10 transmission lines and knocked down trees that took down power lines.

Beryl on Tuesday was far less powerful than the Category 5 behemoth that tore a deadly path of destruction through parts of Mexico and the Caribbean last weekend. But its winds and rains were still powerful enough to knock down hundreds of trees that had already been teetering in water-saturated earth, and strand dozens of cars on flooded roadways.

“We’re not past any difficult conditions,” said Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, who is acting governor while Gov. Greg Abbott is out of the country.

At least two people were killed when trees fell on homes in Texas, and a third person, a civilian employee of the Houston Police Department, was killed when he was trapped in flood waters under a highway overpass, Whitmire said.

The loss of power was an all-too familiar experience for Houston: Powerful storms had just ripped through the area in May, killing eight people, leaving nearly 1 million without power and flooding numerous streets.

Patrick warned that flooding could last for days as rain continued to fall on already saturated ground.

“This is not a one-day event,” he said.

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