Idalia insured losses expected to be in mid-single digits

Insured losses from Hurricane Idalia are expected to may be in the $3 billion to $6 billion range, with little effect on reinsurers, according to early estimates.

Idalia came ashore in North Florida yesterday and swept through Georgia and South Carolina before heading into the Atlantic.

On its projected track, it may pass over Bermuda by Sunday when it is expected to be a tropical storm.

Idalia brought a narrow field of hurricane-force winds through a sparsely populated area and a storm surge that might yet peak below the worst of the pre-storm warnings.

“This is not the devastating event that was feared even 24 hours ago,” the senior meteorologist at re/insurance brokerage BMS, Andrew Siffert, said after the storm made landfall.

BMS “feels comfortable” with cat model estimates in a $3 to 6 billion range and considers that “the lower end of that range is more likely.”

Moody’s RMS had put Idalia as a $6.3bn insured loss and reinsurance broker Gallagher Re has estimated a low to mid-single digit industry losses.

“Overall losses should be below most carrier cat programs, so this will not be a reinsurance event as insurance companies retain the losses,” Siffert said. “Many factors seem to be coming together to limit overall insurance industry losses.”

Storm surge damage might also have held below worst-case fears. The NHC reported a water level of 6.8 feet above mean higher high water for Cedar Key on the exposed right-hand side of landfall as an approximation. Forecasts had run higher. BMS's Siffert held out hope that peak storm surge readings might have been capped at 9 feet.

Lingering storm surge warnings on the Atlantic coast only ranged upwards of 4 feet (1.3m).

As of 2:00 local time, the storm was centred some 20 miles (30 km) south west of the South Carolina coastal resort town of Myrtle Beach moving northeast along the coast at 21 mph (33 km/h) and bearing maximum sustained wind speeds of 60 mph (95/km/h).