Guy Carpenter launches new Vietnam Flood Model

Guy Carpenter & Company has launched a new fully probabilistic Vietnam Flood Model, providing countrywide coverage.

The Guy Carpenter Vietnam Flood Model is based on a 10,000-year stochastic catalogue simulating both fluvial (riverine) and pluvial (rainfall) flooding. The fluvial component was developed using hydrological and hydraulic modeling to simulate rainfall and river discharges. Pluvial flooding is simulated using a proprietary, in-house methodology accounting for local climate conditions, soil type, land use and topography.

The model produces event-loss tables, occurrence exceedance probability curves, and average annual losses at virtually any level of aggregation. The model can be used in conjunction with Guy Carpenter’s MetaRisk platform to analyse outputs and create reinsurance structures and capital modeling.

Floods affect 70 percent of Vietnam’s population. Tony Gallagher, chief executive of Guy Carpenter’s Asia-Pacific region, said: “The Red River delta in the north of the country is very heavily populated and includes extensive industrial areas and the capital city Ha Noi. The Mekong delta in the south, which also has a large population, is very important for agriculture. Additionally, the country is subject to both typhoon and monsoon.”

The new Vietnam model is the latest in a series of Guy Carpenter models for the region that includes Thailand, Malaysia, Philippines and Indonesia.