Aon Benfield’s Impact Forecasting unit has released a new suite of historical and hypothetical cat scenario models that will complement re/insurers existing modelling capabilities.
The new suite can provide contemporary loss data for leading historical events such as Superstorm Sandy, the Thai floods and Kyrill, as well as information on other potential cat scenarios.
Impact Forecasting said that the new models will help “validate existing probabilistic models”, while enabling re/insurers to use historic and hypothetical event data to understand loss exposures “in territories where no models currently exist”. The suite will also enable re/insurers to integrate and apply third party vendor assumptions.
The unit said that through an increasingly sizable suite of scenario models that address exposures in the US, Japan and Europe and specific cats including hurricane, storm surge and earthquake, companies will be able to more closely monitor their exposures.
The intention is to provide insurers with “more detailed information for reinsurance purchase and claims management”, said Impact Forecasting.
Bermuda:Re spoke with Adam Podlaha, international head of Impact Forecasting about the new suite and its capabilities.
What sets the new suite apart from existing capabilities available to re/insurers in the market?
The Impact Forecasting model suite fills gaps for perils and territories where vendor companies don’t have models yet (Central and Eastern European flood, earthquake, Maghreb earthquake and Thailand floods)
Impact Forecasting’s ELEMENTS platform is the first commercially available platform into which its users can add new models, events or change certain model components such as vulnerability curves based on their own data. Vendor models don’t allow this.
ELEMENTS make understanding the outputs easier in terms of uncertainty quantification. Its structure also helps users to understand how different components are linked together and increase the transparency of the system
How do you see Impact Forecasting's capabilities fitting with those of other modelling firms?
We concentrate on filling gaps in non-modelled perils and territories but we also have models in already covered areas as these often include the biggest exposures for our clients. We need to understand these in detail and that’s why we have models in place.
What further developments can we expect from Impact Forecasting in this area?
In terms of models: a European windstorm model later this year, a Chile earthquake and tsunami model at the end of the year, more scenario models, especially for the APAC region, and more human risk models. We are also updating a range of flood models to accept longitude and latitude-based portfolio data.
In terms of the platform: a more visual approach to mapping exposure and losses, expanding tools to understand hazard, vulnerability and exposure uncertainty for both probabilistic and historical events.
Aon Benfield, cat modelling, Bermuda, reinsurance, Impact Forecasting