Helene insured damage too early to estimate

Initial estimates of losses from damage from Hurricane Helene are starting to be reported, but with the caveat that it is still too early to tell what the final figure could be. 

The hurricane likely delivered losses on insured residential and commercial properties in Florida and Georgia in a range of $3 to $5 billion as of September 27, 2024, CoreLogic said in a preliminary view.

Hurricane Helene, the eighth named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, made landfall as a Category 4 hurricane in Florida's Big Bend region on September 26. The “most powerful storm to ever hit” the Florida Big Bend region, Hurricane Helene brought a 20-foot storm surge and 140 mph (250 km/h) maximum sustained windspeeds Thursday (September 26) evening, claimed CoreLogic. 

However, Moody’s has issued a warning that it will take time to properly assess the damage, saying in a briefing note that it remains far too early to assign a precise cost to Helene. A far more precise estimate of insured losses will be released in the coming weeks by Moody's RMS Event Response. But based on what is known about the storm so far, Moody’s said that there is enough information to produce a preliminary lost output and damage figure. 

Lost output reflects the inability of firms and workers to contribute to the economy because of the hurricane. In the areas that took a direct hit, damage and evacuations will likely mean a period of weeks in which the economy will be severely hindered. But because landfall occurred in a sparsely populated area-with Taylor County, which took the most direct hit, one of Florida's least dense the footprint for severe impact is somewhat limited. 

More moderate disruptions, including school and office closures and power outages lasting a few days, should have a more significant impact. Already, more than 4 million people are without power, and that figure may move higher as the storm continues to churn through the Southeast. Even though a return to relative normalcy will come in a matter of days, the breadth of the disruption will spell a $5 billion to $8 billion reduction in output that spans the third and fourth quarters. 

“On the property damage side, there is a bit more uncertainty,” Moody’s said. “The storm has been catastrophic in the Big Bend, but less expensive housing and fewer homes keep a lid on the price tag there. Rather, most of the cost will come from milder damage that spans a wide footprint covering four states and including some major population centers. Ultimately, we expect $15 billion to $26 billion in property damage, resulting in a total cost of $20 billion to $34 billion.”

Moody’s stressed that the insured loss figure will take more time to compile.

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