Francine insured losses should not exceed $2bn
Private insured losses from Hurricane Francine, which hit Louisiana last week, are unlikely to exceed $2 billion and will be "manageable" for the reinsurance market, Moody's RMS has estimated.
Moody’s RMS Event Response also estimated losses to the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) from this event to be less than US$200 million.
Moody’s said it expected the vast majority of total private market and NFIP insured losses to occur in Louisiana and to be driven by wind.
Jeff Waters, director, North Atlantic Hurricane Models, Moody’s, said: “We expect Hurricane Francine to be another manageable event for the (re)insurance market this hurricane season.
"Fortunately, the storm encountered strong wind shear just prior to landfall, which limited its potential to strengthen further and helped it to weaken quickly post-landfall. "It was also aided by low tide conditions at the time of landfall, which counteracted chances for particularly damaging storm surge. Still, a combination of saturated antecedent conditions and heavy rainfall – particularly within Orleans Parish – contributed to precipitation-induced flooding in many areas."
He added: "Including Francine, Louisiana has now experienced six landfalling U.S. hurricanes since 2019. While some structures have been lost entirely, many of those that remain have been repaired and brought up to more stringent building codes and design standards adopted by the state, thereby improving their resiliency to damaging wind and water. We expect these instances to be more common following Francine, to the benefit of both policyholders and the (re)insurance market at large.”
The estimate represented onshore insured losses associated with wind, storm surge, and precipitation-induced flooding, and insured offshore energy losses from wind and wave impacts and associated business interruption.
Moody's said Hurricane Francine was the third hurricane to make landfall in the US this season, making it the most active US hurricane season since 2020.
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