Ariel Re modelling expert contributes chapter to new hurricane risk book
Slowdowns in the speed of ocean circulation are the cause of warmer sea surface temperatures which in turns leads to more destructive hurricanes.
That is the conclusion of a team of researchers, including Ariel Re's Elizabeth Harris, in a chapter of a prestigious new book looking at how hurricanes and tropical cyclones are evolving, and have become more dangerous.
Harris, Ariel Re vice president modelling and research, contributed to the chapter along with three leading academics.
The book, ‘Advances in Hurricane Risk in a Changing Climate’ arose from the 2024 Symposium on Hurricane Risk in a Changing Climate, which was held in Hawaii in June, and features contributions from leading scientists and academics from around the world.
Harris co-wrote the chapter with Robert Marsh, Professor of Oceanography and Climate, at the University of Southampton, Jeremy Grist, Senior Research Fellow at the UK National Oceanography Centre, and Dipanjan Dey, Assistant Professor, School of Earth, Ocean and Climate Sciences at the Indian Institute of Technology Bhubaneswar.
“We conclude that changes in the speed of ocean circulation are the main cause of the increase in the warm water available in the North Atlantic for hurricane development in a high-resolution forced climate modelling,” said Ms Harris. “As circulation in the North Atlantic slows down, it leads to a build up of warm water available for hurricane intensification.
“It is a great honour to contribute to this book which will appeal to not only academics but policymakers and the insurance industry, who all have an interest in the way that hurricane risk is evolving due to climate change and climate variability.”
The foreword to the book is written by one of the world’s leading climate scientists, Kerry Emanuel, Professor of Atmospheric Science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
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