AI cannot replace hurricane hunters, former NOAA leader warns

Despite advances in AI autonomous technology, the ability to forecast hurricanes still depends on a small fleet of ageing aircraft that cannot yet be replaced, Vice Admiral Nancy Hann warned delegates at ILS Bermuda Convergence, held October 12-14.

Hann, who retired from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in March after a 30-year career, cautioned against overestimating the capabilities of emerging technologies when assessing extreme weather risk.

“One thing I would caution people to think about is the promise of new technology, the promise of autonomous systems, the promise of AI. It certainly has added value, but it does not replace these systems,” she said.

“There is no autonomous system right now that can fly into a hurricane. Full stop. There is not.”

The warning comes as NOAA prepares to replace its two WP-3D (P3) Orion hurricane hunter aircraft, which have been operating since the 1970s and are increasingly difficult to maintain.

Hann described the extraordinary lengths required to keep them flying: “We actually had to steal the landing gear nose off the display aircraft at the Jacksonville Navy base. That's the only place we could find one.”

Two replacement C-130 aircraft are now under construction, with delivery expected in 2030. However, Hann warned that the planned fleet remains insufficient to meet the demands of hurricane reconnaissance, particularly when storms develop simultaneously in the Atlantic and Pacific.

“Two is not enough,” she said, explaining that the US Congress has authorised up to six aircraft, the number requested by the National Hurricane Center.

The consequences of limited reconnaissance capacity were illustrated by Hurricane Lane in 2018, when a NOAA aircraft was deployed to the Pacific during a quieter period in the Atlantic hurricane season.

“While the P3 was in its first flight, I watched as the forecast shifted 90 degrees when the aircraft was in there collecting data and sending it in real time,” Hann recalled.

Hann told delegates that removing aircraft observations would reduce hurricane track forecast accuracy by around 20%, and intensity forecast accuracy by approximately 15%.

While NOAA is developing uncrewed aircraft and ocean-based observational systems to address gaps in hurricane data, particularly close to the ocean surface, Hann stressed that these technologies complement rather than replace crewed reconnaissance.

Asked about her greatest accomplishment during three decades at NOAA, Hann identified securing the next generation of hurricane hunter aircraft.

“Going through the process to get the support, get the funding, get those aircraft on the line, I'd say will be the proudest moment from my career.”

For a re/insurance and ILS industry reliant on increasingly sophisticated catastrophe models, her message was a reminder that forecasting advances remain dependent on observations collected in some of the world’s most dangerous weather conditions.

“[I’m proud] knowing that there will be aircraft forecasting these extreme events for the next 30, 40, 50 years, without doubt,” Hann said. “These tools are absolutely critical. There is no replacement.”

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