Acrisure Re see above average hurricane activity
Acrisure Re forecasts an “above average” hurricane season this year, but with less activity than the record 2020 and 2021 seasons. Acrisure Re, the reinsurance division of re/insurance broker and fintech platform Acrisure, presents the forecast in its 2022 Pre-Season Hurricane Outlook report.
Recent heightened hurricane activity is at least partly attributed to the current warm phase of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) which began in 1995, the report notes. This season, however, Acrisure Re Analytics currently forecasts a cooler Atlantic surface temperature than in 2021 through the key months of the 2022 hurricane season.
“The 2022 hurricane outlook indicates an above-average period of storm activity which will mean guarding against loss of life and property damage,” Simon Hedley, CEO of Acrisure Re, said. “Acrisure Re’s analytical capabilities and intellectual reach allow us to remain committed to providing sustained market leading modelling and research regarding the upcoming hurricane seasons. These methodological considerations will be of heightened importance given the impact of storm devastation in 2021. We will continue to provide updates as the season progresses.”
Acrisure Re considered the following factors:
- Forecast AMO and Atlantic sea surface temperature are slightly lower than last year, indicating a less active hurricane season than in 2021
- The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is predicted to be a marginally weaker La Nina phase than last year, which will lead to weak vertical wind shear and enhanced hurricane activity
- Negative ENSO rates are associated with lower landfall rates for Gulf clusters in Arcisure Re’s forecast model
- Past analog years of 2006 and 2015 indicate Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) is trending to a positive anomaly. It has been suggested that positive QBO values are associated with more Cape Verde storms forming in the deep tropics
- Conditions in the Sahel region of Africa appear to be close to average. This means dust is unlikely to play a major role in suppressing hurricane activity
“Our 2022 hurricane outlook report reflects a consultative and collaborative approach to gain a deep understanding of the potential for catastrophic risks this summer and fall. This model enables our analytics team to operate as an extension of our clients’ risk management team and provides the basis for advice year-round,” Ming Li, global head of catastrophe modelling at Acrisure Re, concluded.
